# Need help...someone who's good at math. **URL:** \ **Category:** NYSpeed Off Topic\ **Created:** [May 13, 2009, 6:21am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709 "2009-05-13T06:21:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:21am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/1 "2009-05-13T06:21:50Z")
Dawn’s motorcycle thread got me wondering just how likely you are to die if you ride a motorcycle. The problem is all the statistics I can find rank it about 1:1000. > **[Top 10 Causes of Death for Ages 20 to 24](https://www.verywellhealth.com/top-causes-of-death-for-ages-15-24-2223960)** > > The top causes of death among people ages 20 to 24 include unintentional injuries, homicide, and COVID-19. Learn the top causes of death and tips to prevent early mortality. This is the part that bothers me: > The odds are statistical averages taken from the whole U.S. population. These odds do not necessarily reflect the chances of death for a particular person from a particular external cause. Since only a small percentage of the US population actually rides motorcycles that makes the 1:1000 a pretty useless stat. It’s basically saying that I, as someone who doesn’t even own a bike has the same 1:1000 chance of dying in a motorcycle crash as my friend Scott who commutes on has Harley every day. So, using these numbers, what’s a better percentage? 1:1020 for entire US population. Only about 9% of the US population rides motorcycles. There are about 300,000,000 people in the US. I feel pretty dumb that I can’t figure out what formula I need to sift out the numbers I’m looking for, which is giving people that don’t ride a motorcycle a 0% chance of dying on motorcycle, and assigning the rest of the odds to the 9% that do ride a motorcycle. ---
**Author:** ![Joe](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/joe/32/7219_2.png) [@Joe](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Joe)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:26am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/2 "2009-05-13T06:26:41Z")
1/(1020\*.09) = roughly 1 in 92. That seems really high. ---
**Author:** ![justa4door](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/justa4door/32/7259_2.png) [@justa4door](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/justa4door)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:27am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/3 "2009-05-13T06:27:41Z")
I think the 1:1000 is correct … look at the statistical finding of you getting killed in a car crash if you dont drive … or getting hit by lightning when you never leave the house b/c you are agoraphobic ---
**Author:** ![Motocrossx23](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/motocrossx23/32/5120_2.png) [@Motocrossx23](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Motocrossx23)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:33am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/4 "2009-05-13T06:33:11Z")
I’m interested to see how this works out :tup: (if you went by Ugo’s math though…everyone dies) ---
**Author:** ![justa4door](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/justa4door/32/7259_2.png) [@justa4door](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/justa4door)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:34am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/5 "2009-05-13T06:34:50Z")
> [@Motocrossx23](#): > > I’m interested to see how this works out :tup: > > (if you went by Ugo’s math though…everyone dies) it was Chris Rock not Ugo … FUCK kids these days ---
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:35am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/6 "2009-05-13T06:35:40Z")
> [@justa4door](#): > > I think the 1:1000 is correct No, it’s not, and I already explained why. 1:92 actually seems low to me considering cars are 1:84. I realize people travel far more miles in cars than on bikes but I thought once the odds of dying in a motorcycle accident were filtered to just the people that ride that motorcycles would end up a higher risk than cars. ---
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:39am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/7 "2009-05-13T06:39:21Z")
PS… for as much as you hear people say, “you’re more likely to be killed crossing the street” it’s surprisingly difficult to find the odds that you’re die crossing the street. ---
**Author:** ![Joe](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/joe/32/7219_2.png) [@Joe](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Joe)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:48am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/8 "2009-05-13T06:48:38Z")
I confirmed that my math is correct by taking the long way. Total number of motorcycle deaths = 300000000/1020 = 294,117 per year. Population of motorcycle riders =300000000\*.09 = 27000000 Motorcyle deaths/motorcycle riders = 294,117 / 27,000,000 = 0.010893246 = 1 in 92 roughly. ---
**Author:** ![BlackedOut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ecccb3/32.png) [@BlackedOut](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/BlackedOut)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 6:58am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/9 "2009-05-13T06:58:28Z")
Are we talking street or track? Street your toast… Track…your golden! ---
**Author:** ![Motocrossx23](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/motocrossx23/32/5120_2.png) [@Motocrossx23](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Motocrossx23)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 7:35am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/10 "2009-05-13T07:35:35Z")
Haha jay I was just making a point to him by saying that, he just made it sound like were all dead men walking lol 1:92 sounds pretty spot on ---
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 7:56am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/11 "2009-05-13T07:56:21Z")
> [@Motocrossx23](#): > > Haha jay I was just making a point to him by saying that, he just made it sound like were all dead men walking lol > > 1:92 sounds pretty spot on It’s not just you, you hear people use that all the time. I just thought it was funny when I started searching for crossing the road death statistics it wasn’t something that was readily available on Google. ---
**Author:** ![Motocrossx23](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/motocrossx23/32/5120_2.png) [@Motocrossx23](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Motocrossx23)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 8:03am UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/12 "2009-05-13T08:03:59Z")
I can imagine it’s difficult due to the variables of such deaths, most of the time those variables are claimed as cause of death ---
**Author:** ![system](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/uploads/speedlife/original/2X/b/b7170c8eddc0b95ece6b88172b2f416a08489a45.png) [@system](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/system)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 12:44pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/13 "2009-05-13T12:44:28Z")
> [@Joe](#): > > I confirmed that my math is correct by taking the long way. > > Total number of motorcycle deaths = 300000000/1020 = 294,117 per year. > Population of motorcycle riders =300000000\*.09 = 27000000 > Motorcyle deaths/motorcycle riders = 294,117 / 27,000,000 = 0.010893246 = 1 in 92 roughly. Uh, 294,117 motorcycle deaths per year? You know how to work a calculator, but your math is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Joe](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/joe/32/7219_2.png) [@Joe](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Joe)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:07pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/14 "2009-05-13T13:07:06Z")
How is my math wrong? Read the OP: USING THESE NUMBERS. The numbers look wrong, but that doesn’t make my math off. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Eyed\_Devil](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/blue_eyed_devil/32/7292_2.png) [@Blue\_Eyed\_Devil](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Blue_Eyed_Devil)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:14pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/15 "2009-05-13T13:14:17Z")
300,000,000 don’t drive.(?) Maybe it should be 9% of drivers? There is no way 294,117 people die on motorcycles. The link says motorcycle accidents. Should we assume this means off-road, racing, and ATV? It is not really clear is it? ---
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:23pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/16 "2009-05-13T13:23:50Z")
I think it’s the 9% that’s wrong. I had suspicions about that number when I saw it. I did just find this: > **[How many motorcycles are there in the US](http://www.answers.com/Q/How_many_motorcycles_are_there_in_the_US)** > > The NHTSA says there were over 7 million motorcycles registered bikes in 2007 in the United States. In addition, there are also unregistered bikes. That says 4 million registered motorcycles. 9% of the population is 27 million people, meaning every 6.75 people would have to share one motorcycle. Someone find out how many motorcycle riding people there really are in the US and we’ll re-run the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Eyed\_Devil](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/blue_eyed_devil/32/7292_2.png) [@Blue\_Eyed\_Devil](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Blue_Eyed_Devil)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:30pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/17 "2009-05-13T13:30:24Z")
[http://www.iii.org/media/facts/statsbyissue/oddsofdying/?table\_sort\_735950=3](http://www.iii.org/media/facts/statsbyissue/oddsofdying/?table_sort_735950=3) 4,387 deaths in one year(2005).:gotme: ---
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:40pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/18 "2009-05-13T13:40:39Z")
> [@Blue Eyed Devil](#): > > [404 - Page not found | III](http://www.iii.org/media/facts/statsbyissue/oddsofdying/?table_sort_735950=3) > > 4,387 deaths in one year(2005).:gotme: Again, it doesn’t help. Read the first post. All their odds are based on the whole US population. They say it right there at the top of the page of the link you provided. > The odds of dying over a one-year period are based on the U.S. population as a whole, Since the whole US population doesn’t ride motorcycles it makes the odds look way better than they really are. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Eyed\_Devil](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/blue_eyed_devil/32/7292_2.png) [@Blue\_Eyed\_Devil](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/Blue_Eyed_Devil)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:47pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/19 "2009-05-13T13:47:26Z")
If there are 40000000 registered motorcycles and 4387 deaths then wouldn’t it be 911.78481? I mean some people may have more than one bike but those numbers are pretty close I would think. ---
**Author:** ![JayS](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex034/user_avatar/forums.speedlife.net/jays/32/15375_2.png) [@JayS](https://forums.speedlife.net/u/JayS)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2009, 1:53pm UTC](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709/20 "2009-05-13T13:53:57Z")
Using the 4 million registered motorcycles to mean 4 million motorcyclists it works out to about 1 in 14 odds that you’ll die on a bike in your lifetime if you ride. Give or take a little since some motorcyclists will have more than one bike, while some won’t have any and just ride someone elses. That number makes much more sense considering it’s 1 in 84 you’ll die in your lifetime in a car. Those aren’t very good odds, which is what I was expecting, and it’s why I don’t ride anymore. [Next page](https://forums.speedlife.net/t/need-help-someone-whos-good-at-math/67709.md?page=2)