how accurate can those probablilties be when they’re so vague?
i could see “what is the probability that a college kicker will make it into the NFL?” or even “what is the probability that a male U.S. citizen will make it into the NFL?”, but “what is the probability of making it into the NFL?” is too vague, isn’t it? Do you consider every person who has lived since the inception of the NFL? I could be totally wrong, because this isn’t something I have any background in, but it seems like a real probability number isn’t possible from such a vague question.
What, new reality and game shows this fall season to replace aging bad TV, like
Who Wants To be a Kicker!
Regis Philbin is beat, so we put Terry Bradshaw and Howie Long on as hosts and ask the general public to fight to be the next kicker for an NFL franchise!
or maybe…
The Kicker!
A new show that replaces The Bachelor: one kicker, 32 teams, who gets the reality show contestant as their new kicker!
to be honest with you… i couldnt tell you how to do it… i won’t even try to think about it becuase i know the solution is far beyond my ability and the ability of anyone on here… i am very good at probability interpretaion and statistical modeling… and all that shit that is associated with it… but, as with most people, i still only know what i’ve been taught… i think it would take Ph.D.'s galore to come up with an answer to a question like that…
I’ll just say this… probability statistics isn’t easy for most people to wrap their mind around… of the kids that enter my major every year (about 40last year) there are maybe 5 left when they become sophomores…
I’d say its a useless question to ask, and how you can write a whole paper on it, i dunno - :gives:
who is eligible? american males? gary anderson is from south africa. all males on earth? not all of them are old enough? all males on earth over 18? some are handicapped, retarded, never heard of football, et cetera…
and yes i’m sure there are many players with mental disorders and learning disabilities playing football, handicapps aren’t just physical. didn’t rocky blier have half a foot?
it’s not an assumption. what’s the probablility that someone who has never heard of football, at an adult age, will become a pro? I’d say it’s never happened in the NFL.
and?
i’m not saying it’s impossible. i’m saying it’s improbable. the majority of people with physical handicaps are ill-equipped to play a professional sport.
so you make a statement like it’s a fact… then argue that it’s a low probability… you’re not very good at sticking with arguements, being as close to an attorney as you are.
and?
and all american males are eligible… even ones from other countries… as you tried to point out about gary anderson… yet dude is a tried and true US citizen… please.
i’m not saying it’s impossible. i’m saying it’s improbable. the majority of people with physical handicaps are ill-equipped to play a professional sport.
no… you were saying it was impossible… it was your arguement against all males being eligible… please review our past posts…
you have to try harder.
i’m not even trying… i’m just reading your errors and pointing them out.
but if you assessed the probability BEFORE HE WAS A CITIZEN it would be inaccurate, wouldn’t it? Hashid Abdul might be kicking a soccer ball in Jordan now, but he could be in the NFL in a few years, no? Is he a US citizen now? no. So if you only count US citizens, you will have a flawed answer… but if you count every foreign male, you will have a flawed answer, because it won’t reflect an accurate probability, since many of these foreign males will never even HEAR of the NFL.
once again… never hearing of the NFL doesn’t restrict someone from professionally playing in it… and someone that is from another country could PLAY in the NFL without citizenship, but to be paid, they must be a US citizen… so yeah… anyone is eligible…
which makes a realistic probability nearly impossible because you don’t know the intent of the 2.8 billion or more foreign males to ever become U.S. citizens, ever play football, ever hear of the NFL, etc…
if your a pro athlete in another country and you never heard of the NFL, especially since the superbowl is watched in like 100+ countries, you have problems.
