wild week. silver should get over $100 inside the month, maybe even this week. Gold might go above $5k this month but definitely by end of Feb.
gold less than $90 away from $5k. wild.
looks like it’ll hit that within the month… probably by monday
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SocGen (some Euro bank?) says that since gold hit $5k already they see $6k coming this year and that this could be a very conservative estimate.
Gold and Silver are having a blow out record day and nothing on Canadian business news about it… odd.
Well that (de)escalated quickly.
Still up a shit ton over the last quarter but that 30% drop was wild
Man, if only I had $5,000!
necessary pullback.
i never put anything into bullion, just the gold miners so no issues for me. there are a couple silver miners i’d like to add and they pulled back nicely so i actually hope silver stays down for a couple weeks.
Shanghai is still trading physical silver over $100 usd when it’s $80 over here.
Wild times. Not sure you could get a better view into paper market manipulation than what’s going on right now.
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so they’re going to set price floors for various critical minerals.
list is here:
read some of the content in the posts.
Gold to $15,000? The Mysterious Bet
In the aftermath of the January 30, 2026, flash crash—during which gold plunged 11% in a single day from its prior euphoric highs above $5,600 to lows below $4,700 following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair—many traders headed for the exits, voluntarily or otherwise.
But not everyone. A shadowy player—or perhaps a syndicate—doubled down on the unthinkable, accumulating approximately 11,000 contracts in December 2026 Comex $15,000/$20,000 call spreads: a low-cost wager implying gold could triple from its current choppy range by year-end.
With open interest remaining steady at approximately 11,616 contracts for the $15,000 calls and 11,423 for the $20,000 calls as of February 19 (per CME’s
), this position shows no signs of fading. Is it evidence of bold conviction, a prudent hedge, or something more calculated—and perhaps more ominous?
Excerpt from the CME Group’s PG64 Metals Options Bulletin for February 19, 2026 displaying a strike-level chain for December 2026 gold calls.
For Fourth Turning Capital readers navigating the fiat endgame, this isn’t mere market noise; it’s a potential harbinger of regime-shift acceleration. But is it a moonshot prophecy or just an overhyped volatility play? Let’s dissect the mechanics, trace the money behind it, explore what it signals for your portfolio, and map out how to position intelligently moving forward.
The Trade Mechanics: Asymmetry on Steroids
At its core, this is a bull call debit spread: buy the $15,000 call (the long leg for leveraged upside exposure) and sell the $20,000 call (the short leg to offset premium costs and cap maximum gains at $5,000 per ounce intrinsic value).
Each contract controls 100 ounces, so roughly 11,000 contracts deliver notional exposure to about 1.1 million ounces—equivalent to roughly $16.5 billion at the $15,000 strike, or around $5.5–$5.6 billion at the prevailing spot price near $5,100 as of February 20 (per CME and market data).
But the real outlay? Far less. With premiums estimated around $18.00 per ounce for the $15,000 call and $7.00 per ounce for the $20,000 call (based on recent CME levels and implied volatility), the net debit per spread falls in the range of $1,100–$1,800 per contract (depending on exact fills, bid-ask spreads, and implied volatility fluctuations). For the full position, total risk capital amounts to roughly $12–$20 million at maximum loss—if gold remains flat or below $15,000 at December expiration.
That’s modest sizing for a serious macro fund or high-conviction player, yet it delivers extraordinary convexity: a explosive move above $15,000 could generate 10x–50x returns on the risked capital, turning this into a true “lottery ticket” with defined downside and uncapped (within the spread) upside potential in a regime-shift scenario.
Lottery Ticket or Insider Signal? The Bull Case
Picture this: In the depths of “peak fear” following gold’s historic correction, a player (or syndicate) deploys just $12–$20 million in risk capital to control roughly 1.1 million ounces of notional exposure. If gold surges to $20,000+ by expiration, the gross payoff could approach $5.5 billion (capped at $5,000 per ounce intrinsic × 1.1 million ounces, minus initial debit), delivering potential net gains of up to $5 billion—or 250–400x returns on risked capital in a true black-swan blowup.
That’s not casual lottery scratching; that’s conviction shouting, “I know something you don’t.” X chatter is ablaze with insider theories: front-running a U.S. gold revaluation (Treasury marking reserves to market could unlock $1T+ for debt relief, as floated in Fed-related papers), Trump-era gold-linked bonds (Judy Shelton’s persistent July 2026 pitch for convertibility-linked Treasuries), or accelerating EM de-dollarization (led by China’s relentless hoarding).
The fundamentals are fanning the flames. Record January ETF inflows reportedly hit $19 billion (per JPMorgan data), the highest monthly total ever, while central banks remain on track for 755–800 tons of net purchases in 2026—still elevated versus pre-2022 norms. The secular uptrend remains unbroken: a 150%+ rally since 2023’s lows, with the 20-week moving average intact despite the January plunge from $5,600+ highs.
Yesterday’s (Friday, Feb. 20) price action feels hopeful—gold climbing 2%+ amid escalating Iran geopolitical risks, stabilizing firmly above $5,100. If this position truly reflects insider alpha, it’s a piercing Fourth Turning siren: fiat strains visibly cracking, hard assets emerging as the ultimate survival kit.
Silver’s outsized beta adds fuel—down 26% versus gold’s 11% drawdown in the correction, now flirting with backwardation in China—sets the stage for explosive catch-up. Whispers of $300/oz silver on resumption aren’t entirely fanciful in this regime-shift playbook.
The Contrarian Splash—Not What It Seems
But pump the brakes. This isn’t naked moonshot conviction—it’s far more likely a sophisticated volatility arbitrage play or a structured hedge embedded in a larger portfolio.
The striking symmetry in open interest screams mechanical bull call spreads rather than a single directional “someone knows Armageddon is coming” bet. Market makers routinely absorb the short $20,000 leg as part of standard liquidity provision, allowing the buyer to harvest cheap, asymmetric convexity without committing to outright bullish purity.
Far out-of-the-money calls like these often serve multiple roles: tail-risk insurance, risk-premia harvesting (by selling premium on the upper strike while hedging elsewhere), or pure implied-volatility plays—where premiums swell during fear spikes, enabling profitable flips even if gold never approaches $15,000.
We can’t know the exact intent for certain—CME data doesn’t disclose long/short attribution or counterparty identities, and anonymity is baked into the exchange structure. Still, the contrarian view feels more grounded than tinfoil-hat insider narratives: 11,000 contracts equates to modest exposure (~0.2% of AUM for a hypothetical $10 billion macro fund), and the post-crash accumulation timing aligns perfectly with opportunistic hedging or “cheap lottery ticket” positioning after the January volatility washout, rather than prophetic foresight.
In a market where gold has stabilized around $5,100, this setup looks more like an opportunistic convexity play—not doomsday wagering.
The Verdict: Watch Price and Fundamentals—Gold’s Saga Continues
Uncertainty still rules: Is this an insider oracle at work or merely an overhyped, low-cost hedge? Anonymous CME open interest alone proves nothing conclusive, yet when paired with the post-correction timing, the asymmetry of the bet, and the broader macro backdrop, it becomes a legitimate signal to monitor closely.
Meanwhile, anchor your edge in the tape and fundamentals—these are the signals that cut through narrative fog and force real decisions.
On February 20, gold delivered a hopeful rebound as buyers aggressively defended dips and drove a decisive intraday recovery from earlier-week lows.
The bigger catalysts loom ahead. China reopens from Lunar New Year closures on Tuesday, February 23—expect potential volatility as trading resumes. Physical inventories on the Shanghai Gold Exchange remain at multi-year lows, and recent backwardation in domestic futures underscores tight supply and surging underlying demand (bullion restocking, jewelry gifting, and investment flows often accelerate post-holiday). If Asian buyers return aggressively, a clean breakout above $5,100 could target $5,350 or higher in the near term, especially with geopolitical risks providing a floor.
On the flip side, fresh geopolitical nuances could temper the upside. As we explored in our
of the Dmitriev Proposal—Russia’s ambitious $12 trillion strategy to re-dollarize key trade flows and potentially ease sanctions-era pressures—gold may confront structural headwinds that counter the de-dollarization surge triggered by the February 2022 Russian forex reserve freeze. Of course, with Russia closely aligned to China, Moscow retains the agility to navigate both worlds: supporting a Chinese-led neo-gold standard while selectively preserving elements of the American petrodollar architecture. The result? A more complex multipolar chessboard that could cap gold’s near-term convexity even as the long-term fiat-endgame thesis holds.
Bottom line for Fourth Turning Capital readers: This isn’t pointless speculation; it’s a high-conviction asymmetry worth tracking. The fiat-endgame strains haven’t vanished—gold’s firm hold above $5,000 post-plunge, plus persistent deep out-of-the-money open interest, hints at players betting on acceleration.
Stay disciplined: let price lead (breakout confirmation over $5,100 or failure below), watch Shanghai reopen dynamics and evolving geopolitics (including echoes of the Dmitriev play), and position with defined-risk tools (those very spreads remain cheap insurance if fundamentals align).
The saga isn’t over—it’s evolving. We remain long gold and continue to build leveraged long exposure in gold miners via long-dated LEAP calls.
Date: February 21, 2026
Prepared by: Fourth Turning Capital Research Team
This memorandum is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
