It’s comical how high this thing has gone. That said it’s innocent till proven guilty.
Silver is at a 121% fib extension…a retrace of some sort is likely on the way.
Gold coming up on that $1k resistance again.
Both metals performing as expected TA wise. 
So, dumbed down for the engineers amongst us, you guys are saying 8500 is sort of inflated and we “should” see another big fall in the not too distant future?
My 2 cents…I’ve said before. Don’t bet against the micro trend without a wise strategy. This rally could go further than most believe. But in the grand scheme I expect it to drop to the lows and test. That’s my bias…it’s anything but a trading/investing strategy though so be cautious. 
Eh it’s all gambling anyway, with a little statistics thrown in to convince you that it’s not. 
By “testing lows” do you mean like Dow 6700 or more recent lows?
Don’t worry I’m not taking any action based on your advice, just trying to learn/understand what you guys are talking about.
Yes. Look at the current economic climate. Are companies 40% better off than they were 4 months ago? The stimulus plan has definitely helped but the private sector is still sucking a Ron Jeremy-sized one.
This rally is based on a combination of market manipulation by big institutional investors who profit from swings in both directions that last too long, “the bottom is in and i don’t want to miss the ride up” sentiment by people who had their money on the sidelines, and government intervention to spin things to make everything look better than it is. It’s really interesting if you look back over the past 4 months, generally all bad news has been released on the same day as good news.
EDIT: Today is a great example. GM files bankruptcy, so the federal gov’t approves Chrysler’s Fiat deal.
IMO, if anything, many companies are just starting to feel the pain. While I believe that we will have a serious retest, I won’t bet against it until it starts showing me that is what it wants to do.
Ditto. If people are long though it’s not a bad idea to scale out at these clear resistance levels. Use the TA to look for big signs of a end to the bear rally. Take the shot and that gives you a clear stop area to limit risk.
I think that many companies overstated their pain early on (to get govt help, etc) and now things are getting a little worse for real, but it was somewhat expected and at this point planned for and survivable.
so I think we’re in a stable point that might dip a little but will come back to where we are… I think this is what we’ll see for the rest of the year.
I’m going to hold a cash position for a while longer
Good point. I’ve been sitting on my hands for a while (and kicking myself every day).
If anyone would like the market to turn around, I’d be happy to enter some long positions :mamoru:
I’ve been playing my “I don’t know what the market’s going to do so buy options on both sides” strategy.
My main short-term holdings are long oil and short financials. (USO calls, FAS puts)
Buy limit GM limit @ .6 sell limit at .74 made 20% on a quicke today and I ok for the week. BTW USO sucks I try to game them and they always move like a drunken sailor in relation to oil.
Akuma
yeah i really prefer DXO/DTO but there are no options available on them. Doing good on the USO calls though… $32 calls purchased for $1.70. Just wish I bought more.
haha, wonder if theres enough hopes and dreams left in the tank to get to S&P 1000 :roflpicard:
That red level would push us to fill the long wick on that wild candle down. That’s market excess and there’s lots of pain/supply to be found in that dead cat bounce area.
If we hit mid 9000’s and show rejection on the tighter timeframes (daily, 60 min) I’ll be unloading some more of my 401k into stable value funds as planned. That’s the area I could foresee capping this rally.
If we pierce into that red supply zone I could see investing but with a trade style stop. Once inside that range we MUST hold or I would run to the hills as they say. Though all in all I think one is nuts to buy long into all this supply. Bulls either bought awhile ago or they should wait and pray for supply to prove broken and buy new found support. The support would be the top of the red zone and should be confluent with the bottom line of the downward sloping channel. Simple as that IMO. 
I’m not saying longs can’t squeak more $ out of the rally, just that the upside to downside risk is still rather bearish at this point.
This new weekly chart shows the Point of Control being tested already. The green arrow is upside potential (assuming the supply range holds) and the red arrow is the downside potential (assuming the green support levels don’t hold). Range bound is ok to make moves in, but either use the range extremes for entry and stops or employ some scaling method using the extreme levels as stops. Or use range breaks to enter of course…breakouts are a very sound way of trading. In range the market is said to be “in balance”, and when balance is disrupted it tends to move to the next level of “balance” for testing. Enjoy!
I agree. I’m reflecting it in my trading as I have sold off my long positions, other than oil, because I still feel it’s got some room to run even if the market as a whole declines, and I have taken some small preliminary short positions with T-stops to cover one more breakout upward. My projection says look to go a little more full on short on or around 6/10, I will continue to monitor because who knows wit hthis market… I may do so with out-of-the-money puts to start, since with only time value there’s a limited loss potential if i’m wrong.
Keep me posted, I may dabble in options when timing sets up on my charts.
I’ll trade ya an options rundown for a heads up on the technicals when you see something big forming. I can’t run any charting at work and sometimes i miss out on things. I love the opportunity to make 2-300% profits in a short period with limited downside. My USO calls right now are at 6.20 and I paid 1.70 last week.
Why can’t you chart at work?
restrictive internet connection, i cant use any java apps or download programs, they wont connect.