^
I am pulling the plug on TradersBASE at the end of this month. I’ve shelled out $50 per month for prime VPS hosting and the site has gone un-used. I just can’t justify that cost any longer.
It’s been fun and I enjoyed learning with you all. I regret having to lose all my documents/articles and charts but I can’t even justify $15 a month for shared hosting given the dismal participation over the last year.
Good luck in your trading and lives. If you were someone I built a rapport with you know how to reach me, if not you probably don’t care about this announcement. LOL
RIP TradersBASE!
Why would you lose all of your documents/articles and charts? I could mirror them for you on my server, pm me
That looks interesting. Who’s Murray N Rothbard? I’m guessing that by posting the link you’re recommending a good read?
I always keep a local backup of the servers files and my DB’s.
I wasn’t sure if I was going to re-host them elsewhere basically. I have decided to host with a friend on a shared host. It will be slower but at least the content is still on the web if nothing else.
Thanks for the offer. 
Yup, good read IMO.
I don’t have a good memory for names and dates etc…
I mostly read for the psych aspect and to have a broad grasp on things.
Site is back up on a new cheaper host. Seems to be working well after some transfer code battles I had. LOL.
Side note…I meant to pull MCD and looked at MDC by mistake. Monthly chart looks pretty sexy for potential longer term investing IMO. Thoughts?
Looks really cyclical. However it’s easy to see why they’d be beaten down from a fundamental perspective…
The Company operates through two segments: homebuilding and financial services.
Nicely hammered down. And since we know lending will be saved at ANY and ALL expense I think it’s best to invest rather than sit cash. Cash is going to lose value, anything the USD is used to buy/back is likely to rise.
I’ll probably sell naked puts for my entry, or at least part of my entry.
Hrmmm. Can history repeat itself?
I dunno how many times they can fabricate bottoms and prop an ailing economy up but as they say…“if ya can’t beat em, join em”. 
You can join them. I think I’ll leave the party for a little while.
I’m still all cash. I want a breakout and test or consolidation with a sound stoploss to get long for the long term. On the other side, I want some bear momentum to get short for my expected correction.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1855-Oh-SEC!-What-Sort-Of-BS-Game-Was-This.html
Gee, honest mistake?
-----Original Message-----
From: CME Globex Control Center
Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2010 4:54 PM
Subject: ESH0 Event
Importance: HighBetween 11:03 and 11:04 CT today, there were a series of transactions in ESH0 in which a market participant appears to have inadvertently traded approximately 200,000 contracts as both buyer and seller. CME maintains trade practice and risk management rules and procedures respecting such matters. In keeping with standard practices and CME’s self-regulatory responsibilities, CME is reviewing the circumstances of this event.
As both buyer and seller? Uh… wait a second. On the same order?
This is the “action” being discussed:
That was roughly 94,000 contracts on a one-minute bar, as you can see, an absolutely massive amount of volume compared to that in the immediate vicinity.
Needless to say that spooked people. My initial thought when I saw it (and I did see the blocks go by on T&S - there were a lot of 1,000 and 2,000 contract orders that filled!) was that they were buy stops just above the overnight range set at about 7:00 AM Central. The “barker” in the pit also characterized it this way - understandable, since that’s exactly what it looked like. Of course the pit folks saw it, assumed it was a big buy stop and piled in.
But both the CME email and the volume bar implies that the same “market participant” was both the buyer AND THE SELLER.
Here’s the problem, in a nutshell:
There is no way you could come in with 200,000 contracts worth of bid without lifting the entire offer chain and spiking the market 20 handles or more north instantly. Yet that didn’t happen, which strongly implies that whoever entered the “buy” also, at the same time, entered a “sell” at the same strike and time, which the email from CME seems to confirm. The fact that the executions came literal milliseconds apart and were in even-lot blocks of 1,000 and 2,000 contracts further implies that this was some sort of manipulative game.
“Mistake” eh?
This entire little episode smells like dead fish. Someone was either “lying in wait” with enough liquidity to soak that up and not generate a price spike, whoever did it was on both sides (and thus GUARANTEED there would be no material price spike) or one of the oddest coincidences I’ve ever seen in the futures markets - 100,000 contracts magically appearing on both bid and offer from two different people at the same precise instant - magically occurred.
If the intent was to scare the bejeezus out of anyone who would “dare” to short a potentially-failed breakout, they succeeded. Who’s going to try to short into someone who has 100,000 contracts that will magically appear opposite your offer at the most-opportune time (for them) and bury you 6 feet under?
Of course this begs the obvious question: Who has the margin capacity to execute a trade like that ($5,625 per contract required for initial margin), or $562,500,000 - yes, $562.5 million) - on each side of the trade? (this assumes the volume I have here is right - if its really 200,000+ contracts, double that.)
Hmmmm…
I’ll bet my last nickel neither the CME or SEC will do a damn thing about this, despite the outrageously blatant character and the clear implication of the event. Nor will we see ANY update from the CME or SEC on what did actually happen or who was responsible.
You can take that to the bank.
Charles Biderman of Trimtabs (a very well-respected research outfit) has argued for a while now that the rally for the last several months cannot be explained by buying coming from any of the trackable sources. That is, it’s not coming from institutions, it’s not coming from households (individual investors), it’s not coming from pension funds or hedge funds. He therefore argues, as a matter of exhaustion (who’s left?) that it likely is coming directly from The Federal Reserve and/or Treasury via intervention in the equity markets.
Are we all trading in a rigged casino? I have not been a subscriber to these sorts of theories over the years, but when you see activity like I saw today in the futures market without a clear, cogent explanation of what actually happened that also fits the facts you have to wonder.
This really got my attention. $562 million on both sides of the transaction.
10+% since the call…on volume.
Anybody get in?
Negative. But I did just catch a nice run from 39-46 in BWLD the past week or so
My perspective. Obviously green drawings = bullish and red = bearish. There are many support levels below. The failed break on the head n’ shoulders showed quite bullish sentiment. Bear wise, there is some nice resistance overhead. Both the channel and bigger triangle/spring have broke down. The channel even tested and was rejected at $110ish so that’s a KEY level the bulls will have to fight.
Personally I’d like to see quite a bit of consolidation, which would build even more support up here for the bulls to spring off of. I don’t see how jobless recovery is possible, but I’ll trade what I see and not what I think.
I made out big on a BWLD strangle with the 50 call and 45 put for earnings this morning. It always moves big one way or the other. I was guessing up but it went down 12%. Alleviates the fact that UNG has been killing me.
Interesting look at the way unemployment took hold in the recession.
Who all loves the insanity. I do cause I’m all cash. A few buddies got chewed up hardcore. 3 guys total losses are about $25k because the bid fell out and they were sucked into the vortex. Traders, not investors I should clarify. 