Just observations…who the hell really knows. The “economists” don’t know in reality let alone some retail speculators like us. LOL
The thing with indices is they trend up in part due to inflation. The DOW is double inflated as I call it because the issues have swapped out and bad performers have been dropped. So the S&P is more legit perhaps, especially given the broad spectrum of issues it tracks. But the DOW is always news worthy and people still love to track it.
The trendlines don’t lie…now the charts are log scaled so one could debate trend support. Horizontal support is really where I focus most my attention honestly. Price action and volume over trendlines if I had to choose. Thank god I can use both in a blend though.
This shows the NAZ new highs/lows indicator (NAHL) diverging on the last low.
Along with volume and macd. Plus that 21ma is right there and could trigger a rally if broken well.
DJI with the NYHL showing the same thing. Less issues with new lows despite the big index shakeout making new lows. Divergence that should be noted IMO.
I picked up some Sirius at 8 cents a share this past Thursday I actually tried to get it at .05 last Wednesday but it never hit that, so my limit got f’d lol.
Below is a post I made on my site related to gold…I know we have some gold bugs in here since people are trying to hedge inflation.
Gold is at the top of the channel on the Daily. Weekly we are into the market excess supply as well. Everyone is all “gold to $1k” which makes me want to think it will come up shy on this push. I bet there are tons of orders riding $1k though so even if it hits that level it’s likely to get a psychological pushback from targets being hit at a milestone level.
I still have it, I’m hoping for 30 cents. I was hoping after they got the money from Liberty Media, it would jump up… only went to .22 and started coming back down, I’ll hold it for a bit longer.
I would have dumped it at anything above .20. The old Sirius side took on too much debt #1 to pay howard et al, and #2 to buy XM, and they rely way too heavily on new-car sales to increase their subscriber base. They’re drowning in debt. Their only way to get out was to take the Liberty loan-shark style loan. 15% interest and they have to give up a substantial stake in the company. Liberty is the big winner there.
But the difference between Gold and oil is that gold has historically been a hedge against bad economic times and inflation. There is a big bubble in treasuries that is slowly fading and people are going to put their money somewhere. From the gold dealers I have talked to lately business is only increasing at a steady pace for physical orders. People are getting scared to hold the dollar with all the uncertainty.
We are fast-approaching peak uncertainty. The reality is, the US economy is not going to fail. I can see holding gold as a hedge or short-term scalp, but this price level is unsustainable long-term short of an economic collapse.
I have a Q. for anyone who can answer it concerning ETF’s. If you hold an ETF that generally corresponds to publicly traded shares in a certain foreign market, will the price of that ETF generally follow the market it corresponds to or the demand for said ETF?
What are your thoughts on the USD.
Gold has spiked despite the USD sitting in a tightening flag/pennant formation which I find curious. Below is the usd/cad pair since I already had it up. Now I don’t play “formations” because its a flag or cup n’ handle etc… I trade them because of the coiling price action and imminent release of pressure building up. Also in context this flag has based on a major support level.
I just can’t wait for the markets overall to break this damn near 20 week consolidation and get a trend going again.
.19ish was a supply zone and an ideal place to dump into the rally IMO.
Or at least cut some and reduce exposure. Are you at least trailing some kind of stop or have a stop level set? If the 60min 21ma fails to hold the gap is VERY likely to fill. Or maybe use a trendline but I’m more a fan of horizontal as it better shows supply/demand.
Hmm, the USD is an interesting one. On one hand, you have the inflation panic from people who think the government is printing money to fix the economy. This explains the gold. On the other, economic uncertainty repatriates foreign invested dollars back to the USD, particularly since other countries’ economies are being affected as well. People don’t want to take on risk from foreign markets and they go “back to cash.” Right now, they’re more or less cancelling each other out. I think as long as we see cheap commodities (other than gold) and real assets the USD will hold up better than people expect.
If you want a market with a trend, play the 3x long and short financials and energy ETF’s :lol: Other than my long term holdings like BWLD I’ve been taking short positions in FAS/FAZ, DXO/DTO, and ERX/ERY with the majority of my trading.
+1 Everyone is pegging the bottom on USO/oil and I’ve warned em many times. Looking back I alerted of a probable buying climax and reversal back in mid June on a few sites. Everyone laughed and said oil to $200. HRMMM The call was within 10% of the absolute top.
Insiders reaping the rewards before the oil production news hit the press???
Here’s what I’m lookin at now on USO. Divergence is enticing but the volume is just still too heavy IMO. That has all the makings of a selling climax building though and if I knew more about options I would use the time on my side and work this out. This will take a breather at some point and it should be violent but pegging bottoms is dangerous.
Volume was staggering pushing off the lows back in Nov. showing market excess purchased by long term investors. These lows are sucking less volume out…I’m not calling a bottom but I can see a reversal in the works. I certainly won’t be giving a timeframe, that’s one guarantee. LOL
Either way I just want a damn trend to form so swing trading will be more realistic again.
JMHO
Added—
I’m not saying we fly to 14k etc…
We could chop for along time of course. I kinda could see another sharp shakeout to death roll on retail traders/investors before anything. The one thing I’m confident in is that mass accumulation has begun. We would probably not have seen that sans bailout. I’m not saying I agree with the bailout either…I think a true flush would have been better for the economy longer term. But the big boys know there’s more push left now that all that money/debt was created.
lol, penfold is on my ignore list but every time someone quotes him it’s the same old shit. WE GET IT, YOU THINK THE ECONOMY COLLAPSES AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR, DOW, S&P, AND USD GO TO 0.
I actually tried to get it at .05 last Wednesday but it never hit that, so my limit got f’d lol.