and UYG is a recovery bet, but it’s safe to hold for a bit at these levels. You might lose more in the next few days but you’ll make it back and then some. Hell, even an ultra S&P or ultra dow is a good bet if we dip into the 7000’s again…No one realistically expects the entire market to stay down there forever. Not to mention we have the january effect coming soon, which is particularly strong with a new President.
Sureshot, you’re better at fundamental analysis than a lot of traders that claim to know what they’re doing. Keep up the good work. I expect the price to hit .30, or at least .29 and find resistance, this afternoon or tomorrow. I have a trigger set to lock in my gains at that point.
Anyways I looked at the 15 minute CCTYQ chart again. ( I wish I had demo charting software for the stock market, although admittedly I haven’t looked too much for it. )
According to my feed, after the bullish bar that tested .25c, we’ve had two inside bars in a row, then a bearish pin. This combination of price action is indicating to me that going short would be a good decision. I can elaborate on what price action is or what the bars mean if anyone wants.
The following 5 or 6 bars seem to have the same highs and lows. Price isn’t moving out of this range and as a result limit orders are bound to be piling up just above and below. After price is done consolidating like it has, a huge breakout is due. If most of the traders playing this chart agree with my analysis, the breakout will cause the price to plummet. This is caused when all the limit orders are triggered at the same time.
We aren’t picking tops and bottoms here, so the age old adage of trading with the trend applies, imo.
Anyways, I don’t know if this is applicable to this market, and I don’t know if lunch causes the consolidation. I’m not really aware of the fundamentals.
edit: After looking at the 5 min chart, you can see a bearish wedge forming, which usually indicates a bearish breakout.
I dumped at .22. It was lingering there for too long. Usually when that happens, like FNM and FRE, all it takes is one decent sized sale to make a whole ton of limit orders hit and drive the price all the way down the other side of the hill.
Yeah, in my limited experience I’d say that’s a good call. Or you could have taken off half your position so you’d be at a 1:1 r/r and let the other half run. But I think taking profit at .22 was a good call.
This is fun, what are some other stocks to look at?
If you want to watch something that swings pretty good, take a look at SKF. Ultrashort Financials fund. Designed to produce -2x the results of all of the financials. If you guess your in and out points right and play the long and short side, you can make 50% on each trade, holding it less than a week. When it turns, it turns big.
I’m just bored and don’t feel like reading about the currency market or reviewing my own charts, so I thought I’d test what I’ve learned in a different market.
Do either of you know of a decent free charting program for options/futures/mini-dow? My broker only has currencies and commodities, and I hate looking at a webpage that has basically no functionality.
edit: SKF looks like a wild ride. I’ll preform some analysis and see if our opinions match up. After a quick glance, playing price action on this chart would make you some decent %, so many bearish and bullish outside bars and well placed inside bars
180 is your main resistance, I didn’t see a bar in the last 6 months that looked strong past it. I’d be looking to get in short there depending on the price action, looking for a bearish pin, double high low close or even an inside bar. If I had a good indication a bearish trend was forming, I’d be in when it bounced off 180s resistance, even though this is an upwards trending chart
On the daily, if it broke through 180 and closed above, I’d drop to a lower timeframe to see if there was price action to indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. If there wasn’t, I’d wait for a bar to retrace and touch the 180 as support before getting in long. It’d have to be an A+ signal though, and I’d be trailing my stop for sure.
WOOO HOOOOO this market is wild. I just covered the rest of any shorts. Probably too soon but you know my strategy as I like to lock in earnings before the turnaround and buy the next one too soon as well. Now this isnt the best way to make a million but its a great way to consistently see gains. Just bought up a bunch of AKS, and LCC as well.
Reasons are I believe people will fly no matter what, imagine the overhead reduction from the cheap oil they are seeing, and its down some 40% in a few trading days. Although I like the price target of in the 4$ range i went in today. I have no problems holding any of my positions for months or even years. I still have “extra” cash set aside for two rounds of averaging down any positions in the next week or two. It is inevitable that in this type of market we will see another bull run where I will sell off most then snatch up shorts.
Ok cool, I didn’t see any indication of a long on the chart itself, and since I don’t know anything in regards to fundamental analysis, I always like to hear what people’s reasoning is.
You talking about holding a position for months or years reminds me of this PDF I read about “Inifite Yield Utility.” You should check it out if you have a minute. Click Me That should work
I say cover it while gains are locked in. I played this turn terribly, biggest problem was trying to trade some while I was in NY without doing any reading. Oh well last turn i went down 5k before I went up 7k haha.
I will read that later im late for work. But in all reality i sell on all of the bull runs. When we enter into a bull market though i will buy and hold.
gonna let gm drop under 3 bux, supposbly going to be up to 6 before bailout, but i doubt it, common shareholders will be swept away and forgotten about =(
This was my response to buying GM. Just saying. It still might have a good bounce but im not touching it. If you to buy into huge beaten down prices there are stocks like LCC, and AKS taking 20%+ hits that are fundamentally much better off.
