Anyway, pretty cool feature on the NY times’ site. Of the 9 closest states, you can pick who you think will win and it shows the paths to victory for both sides. Good viewer’s guide for when the results start rolling in. If VA and NC get called for Obama early (polls close at 7 and 7:30), it’s basically all over unless Romney runs the table, but Romney is currently ahead in NC.
I think we’ll have a called winner by the networks at 11:00 when the West Coast comes in for Obama. For all intents and purposes, we’ll know well before that if VA/Ohio are called.
If NC and/or Florida go blue, it’s going to be an early night for Romney. That’d be ideal. I’m going to be at Democratic HQ downtown, I’d like the party to get rocking as early as possible.
Popular vote is relatively close, but most (intelligent) staticians have Obama taking it ~305 electoral votes to romneys ~230. The amount of swing states that Romney needs to carry, that he is currently losing in are ridiculous.
The accuracy of these polls, and the election, will come down to how many of these poll identified “likely voters” actually vote. Obama had a huge surge in 2008 with first time voters and there has been a lot of discussion about how many will actually show up this time.
Nate Silver has a pretty good take on the actual numbers here:
Worth a read if you have the time, he explains his methods simply. I ended up understanding a lot of what he was saying despite being completely inept at statistics.
There have been no signs that the end is near… errr… I mean…
I think there were a lot of “inspired” voters for BHO last time, I fear there are a lot of “motivated” voters for BHO this time. Once you get a taste of the Obeasy money you will do what it takes to keep it coming.
I seriously wish the media didn’t even cover presendential campaigns. I think all it does is make the candidates ham it up for the camera, say what they think their supporters want to hear, and bas their opponant in hopes of taking away some votes.
It would be far better if all they were allowed to do is publish their actual agendas with proper explanations/supporting research so that only educated americans would actually understand what each candidate plans to do for this country instead of idiots and poor fucks voting for whoever says they’ll give them more free assistance.
also, IDGAF about abortion or gay marriage. There should be no question on whether or not either should be legal, THEY SHOULD…everyone is entitled to their own beliefs/morals/choices and are responsible for the associated consequences. The whole point of having a seperation of church and state is so that religious beliefs don’t get tangled up in legislation (which we seem to be allowing to happen). If you don’t believe in gay marriage, don’t get gay married. if you don’t believe in abortion, don’t get one. SIMPLE AS THAT.
the issues they seem to argue most over really fucking blow my mind.
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The same way I fear there are a lot of people who actually believe that Mitt Romney’s economic plan will put us back on the right track. If only people had a basic understanding of macroeconomics this wouldn’t even be an issue.
They’ve got to differentiate themselves somehow. Foreign policy? Same. (Bomb fucking everyone.) Deficit spending? Same (be it reducing taxes or raising spending.) Gun control? Same. (Nothing automatic, or owned by anyone who has ever taken Zoloft.) Civil rights? Same. (Take as many as the people will give.)
Abortion and gay marriage are about the only things they can safely disagree on without giving up control of the majority of the people.
I don’t think it is going to be that close. Obama is 15% ahead in early voting… picked it up off reuters the other day but cant find the article now. The GOP does better with voting the day of but i maintain that in all western media the elections are made out to be closer than they are to encourage higher turnout… you know, to make you think that voting matters.
