I agree with that to a certain extent…but we are forgetting one thing, HD TVs. People are buying these things like crazy (me included) and they want to have something that looks pretty on it. Back in the days of VHS and DVD, DVD looked better but there was no additional investment made. Now that people are dropping $1g-$3g on a good TV they may want to get the most out of it. I know that having a HD TV is forcing me to want to become an early adopter of the next technology.
Additionally, HD DVD or Blu-Ray are not a huge departure from DVD. When the DVD came out it was trying to move people away from VHS tapes. This new move might be a bit easier to swallow.