There’s plenty of data from reputable sources that showed asymptomatic spread was\is happening and was a major contributor to why covid was so hard to contain. Even if you want to discount all experts as some grand conspiracy I’ve personally witnessed asymptomatic spread. My neighbor got it from one of his friends who had no symptoms while they were hanging out. 2 days later my neighbor’s friend developed symptoms, got tested and was positive. My neighbor and his wife both ended up with it several days later and they hadn’t seen anyone else. I know lots of people with similar stories. They didn’t get it from being coughed on, just near people who didn’t know they had it having casual conversation.
Very early in the pandemic Michael Osterholm explained why asymptomatic spread was happening and it was because the viral counts were incredibly high before people were symptomatic so even breathing normally was releasing a lot of the virus.
The little bitch wearing it while having sex with his wife though… fuck him. I have my doubts if that story is even real since the whole thing is setting off my troll alarm.
I dont want to go too far down the rabbit hole here but the words relative, estimates, analytical model etc form the entirety of the study based on this quote:
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determined that this decision analytical study, which involved no enrollment of human subjects, did not require institutional review board approval.”
and then:
For all estimates we used data from a meta-analysis of 8 studies from China to set the incubation period at a median of 5 days with 95% of symptomatic individuals developing symptoms by day 12.17 Therefore the daily ( t ) probability of symptom onset ( pso ) for individuals who develop symptoms was:
and
Uncertainty also remains about the proportion of individuals with infection who are never symptomatic ( pns ) and the relative contribution of these infections to transmission
–
im sorry but this is a meaningless study based on compounding estimates based on pernicious data.
We should also note that there’s a difference between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic in regards to spread. Asymptomatic means you NEVER develop symptoms, while pre-symptomatic means you’re infected and develop symptoms days later. It looks like there’s a big difference in spread between truly asymptomatic people and those who exposed others while they were just pre-symptomatic.
Every study aside, I’ve witnessed pre-symptomatic spread with my neighbors case. I’m friends with them and the person who infected them and I know for a fact on the day they were together he had zero symptoms. I even said hi to him from my driveway (and thankfully didn’t walk over because I was busy). Really it’s just common sense that covid is spreading from people who aren’t showing symptoms because it never would have become a 170+ million people infected pandemic if all you had to do was avoid people with symptoms.
I will grant you the significance of pre-symptomatic people given that you cannot know whether you are pre or asy until you show syptoms.
however, that study also sucks.
sample size of 59,all in the same german town and the study was based on phone interviews and a questionaire. some of the people avoided the calls entirely so only 53 people participated.
notwithstanding your personal experience, which does matter but is not relevant (anecdotal to) the broader population, these studies are extremely weak and certainly do not rise to a level of confidence for major societal disruption.
Jacobs said if the border is not opened by June 22, he’s pushing for at least the U.S. to open its side of the border unilaterally to put pressure on Canada.
