That’s a bingo!
I figured as much. What is your view on bonds and rates over the near and long term? I really wish I utilized the bond market more the last few years Late to the party but still treated me well.
The market has me somewhat perplexed at the moment so I stay mostly cash in my “trading” portfolio. 401k/IRA I mostly leave at a solid blend and don’t move aroud much. Ive actually become quite conservative/lame as of late with most of my strategy.
At near negative yields what do you guys think the draw to bonds was/is? Stock dividends seem to have regained their footing, assuming the go-mint doesn’t play debt ceiling games too long and trigger another free fall I see equities as the place to be. My 2 cents. I’m pondering getting in short on bonds if this run up shows signs of weakness at resistance.
Personally I don’t see bond rates going much higher from here. I don’t see the Fed increasing the fed fund rate anytime soon because the economy is so weak. They are going to do everything they can to keep money as cheap as possible; damn near free. Most of the factors we are looking at show that we might have entered a recession back in December right around when the Fed started it’s QEterinty. If you ask me we are looking at deflation, the Fed is doing everything they can and they still cant hit their inflation goal. So we are seeing disinflation which could turn into deflation and bond yields could go negative. We collect a little over 5% on our bonds just in interest so we have been content just sticking with them waiting for the next Oh Shit to happen.
My main issue is that I feel the market has gotten far too risky, they are just riding the Fed. If you look at the Fed’s balance sheet and the S&P500 the correlation is laughable. It’s clear all the Fed is doing is helping wall street and hasn’t helped main street at all. As long as they keep spending everyone on wall street thinks the game will never end. The market is already price to forward looking earnings times the 15 multiple. I have a feeling this earnings season will come in far below estimates and the market could see a correction.
If you think im incorrect then there is always this strategy.
We were trading a lot of options on the TLT but got hit pretty hard back in June when China sold off a lot of positions due to lack of liquidity. Everyone said the selloff in the equity and bond markets were due to the Fed announcing that they might start tapering but we saw that differently. This even confused old Benny, he was surprised that rates went up when they made that announcement. After they ended the first two QEs rates dropped I believe. There are a bunch of way to get into bonds but right now we are just holding 20yr and 30yr treasuries.
Thorough response. A year ago I would think you were nuts for not wanting in on the equities fun money train (buy the fucking dip you fucking idiot) haha. But right now I am a little weary myself. What are some bond funds you guys utilize that you like here forward?
Ive got my eye on BIDU, TSLA, and FB going long.
Penny stocks, I just turned 101% return on FREE. Day traders paradise
A lot of people call us crazy lol. Coming off of a terribe 2012 Q4 we never saw this equity rally coming. What was it based on?.. Nothing; free money from the Fed which will eventually come to an end. A lot of other countries have been warning us to stop and that there will be consequences lying ahead. I work for a wealth management firm and o9ur mind set is to not go chasing short term returns and keep our eyes on the over all macro picture. Once we actually start to see some improvements on main street then we will change our positions. But as for specific funds we don’t use bundled packages or anything like that we just hold long term treasuries. (We don’t believe in portfolio theory or diversification) Cant beat the market using those theories.
Yeah :tup: to post #1622
I am pretty sure Ron Paul is available for the Fed job. :dunno: 
Thanks for bumping the thread guys. On top of this I ran into an old co-worker yesterday and he re-invigorated my interest in the financial markets with a single comment, options most specifically. Despite the media & over-hyped herd sentiment I think volatility is rather low at the moment. It might be time to buy some puts and ride the correction that seems most probable. Thoughts?
Would make sense if you pick some weak companies you might not even need a huge correction. JC Pennys for example they have been getting hammered, I want to say a friend is making a killing on his JCP puts.
Nice, JCP sounds like they are on the brink here.
Some interesting points, 2013 in review.
Not stock market related but, I just saw on NBC NEWS that Chase Bank limited how much money their customers could spend because of the “security” issue this weekend.
I see this as an example of how easily people’s lives can be controlled electronically. Just wait until getting cash will be a great challenge. :tinfoilhat:
Is that in reference to Target getting hacked?
Yep. That was their reason… This time. 
It already is a headache to get a large amount. When I was going to buy my Camaro at first the bank told me i had to come back the next day if I wanted cash. While trying to be calm I talked to the manager and expressed my concern of not being allowed access to my checking account in person. After about 30min I had the cash. It shouldn’t be that difficult.
When it’s this hard to withdraw our OWN CASH it makes me ponder all that eminent domain stuff the conspiracy theorists pass around.
It actually makes really good sense…
The bank has to deal with the fraud issues and the loss of money
Limit the amount people can use until the card is replaced
And idk about other people but I have taken out something like 2k from bank of america ATM and more from a teller with no issues.
I took out a few grand from teller w no prob. Nothing over 4k though
i also had not read this thread but my return rate is 18% on my 403b and still climbing though I heard the market is about to crash.
Chase wasn’t limiting the amount you could withdraw in person at the bank, it was just card purchased for potentially stolen cards. That is good customer service there.