Honestly, I’d put rogue comet above all of those in terms of likelihood of causing a major disruption to the lives of WNYers.
And I’m not that scared of rogue comets either. At least not while Bruce Willis is still alive.
We’re not going to get back into it with the Russians any time soon. They’re still working on rebuilding their economy from losing the last cold war; they sure as hell don’t want to start another one. They’ll do little things to get media attention, more for political purposes in their own country than anything else. Things like flying old bombers around, and blasting off huge conventional bombs.