I have to disagree with you. The Newt and Mitt thing has been going on since before the primaries even started and I wouldn’t expect much to change now. I don’t know how Santorum isn’t a threat after they just concluded that he won Iowa.
I do think Paul will do better than expected today, but that just means another solid 2nd. It will be in part due to Romney not wanting to release taxes (and they way he responded to it) and due to Perry and Huntsman dropping out.