Straight forward question;
When do you think that the recession will end for Canada?
And if it does end, would you believe that there will some sort of economic backlash that will accompany it?
of course it will, may take a few years thought to get out of it but what goes down, must come up and vise versa.
from what I heard, many economic analysts are saying a turn around in early 2010…
but in these days, you can’t really pinpoint it cuz it’s a slow process also considering this is turning out to be the worse one ever.
Analyze multiple major recessionary periods: (Well, essentially classified as depressions because of the negative decline in GDP for at least 2 consecutive periods)
The most obvious one, the 1930’s GD which lasted a whole decade, affected EVERYONE. Then you’ve got the smaller ones, like 1973’s Oil Crisis and Dotcom bust/911 of the 2000’s. These were both followed by periods of unsustainable growth in the market place. If you analyze the returns of the S&P/TSX 60 (Indice of the top 60 companies on the TSX) you have an average return of 12%, and returns as high as 60% in 2000, shortly before 2 years of negative returns of about -30% for 2001, and -18% for 2002. Same goes for the crash in the late 80’s. In 1987, you had an average return of 42%, followed by a negative return of almost -17%. All of these events were preceded by amazing growth, and therefore result in extreme losses when the markets start to become affected by global external factors because everyone wants to pull out of the market to cut losses.
These mini-depressions have had around a 2-3 year cycle, most notably the dotcom bubble bust. So essentially to be brief, we’re in the middle of that usual 2-3 year cycle, essentially we’re at the trough, the bottom of the cycle. The Dow hit bellow 7000 at the beginning of the week, something that hadn’t happened since 1987/88…See the pattern?
I love this recessionary period. I’m making more money now while expanding my portfolio now on the markets than I’ve ever had before. So essentially I welcome these periods, and so do many investors.
Although, this year is significantly bad due to the shit show quagmire that occurred in the states, but thank God for Canada’s extremely sound and conservative banking system. :). Yes, people are losing jobs, losing their homes and spending less, but it’s beneficial and necessary. People will learn for a couple years, throw caution out the wind and repeat this mess all over again. Welcome to the financial system and how it operates.
although they say that now in december of 2008 they said mid 2009 canada`s economy will be back up so i may be a decade who knows
I agree with both duckJAI, RED LINE. Its probably going to take a couple years but it will end.
I think the big qustion is how much longer before it bottoms out?
We’re at the lowest of the low right now. We’ve hit the bottom. You know markets have hit the bottom when even new stimulus plans (Obama’s Trillion $ New Deal) doesn’t spark investor confidence, but instead does the opposite.
I’ve heard that '09 is SUPPOSED to be rock bottom. Let’s hope it is. Early 2010 is supposed to be the turnaround and at least for the automotive sector, some manufacturing numbers won’t really return to where they were at in 2007 until at least 2012…ouch.
Basically it seems that even though 2010 will be the turnaround and things will start to look better, things won’t automatically be good right after 2010 hits…it’s going to take a couple of years to get back where we were at before all of this happened.
hm…
Interesting.
I’m hearing by the end of 2010.
This whole recession thing is pure bullshit, it was just a way for the rich to get richer and put a huger gap between the rich and the middle class.
Why did this thing have to happen in my life time, it’s like ruining two years of my life, … Does God have a customer relations department? I’m gonna file a complaint. This is bullshit. I want my 2 years back or 2 years credit in the next life.
God may not have a customer relations department, but the “end of our time” department is surely blossoming these days…
but now’s not the time nor the place to talk of end time revelations…:rolleyes:
EVERYTHING has a cycle. It will just take time. I’m sure we will see a lot more US companies wanting to import stuff from Canada because their dollar is much better than ours once again. So that will eventually create jobs as there’s more demand…
And you get the picture…
Actually mark, Obama’s stimulus package/speech implicitly called for americans to “buy american” in order to increase domestic trade and activity in their national market. One of the larger steel plants in hamilton, Stelco inc. was recently aquired by an american company and was just shut down, cutting 1500 jobs. A clear message that Americans will look out for number one.
^^ I dunno, at first I thought Obama was the man, but after listening to this “plans” they seem like a load of false hope. I guess we will have to wait and see. Im guessing 2012 we will be out of the recession, I don’t think we have hit the low in Canada yet either.
But thats the point. Obama is putting his faith in his population. In the end what makes economy in north america and most first world countries turn?
Its consumerism. The need for goods and services of different qualities and quantities. Right now, consumer confidence has almost hit rock bottom. No one is interested in buying anything. Saving money is #1 priority. The population needs faith that whatever they buy will contribute to the greater good of the country. The more products you buy, the more money companies make to pay their employees and the more you buy, the more taxes the government collects to pay for public servants like doctors in Canada or Cops on our highways. Thats also why Obama wants everyone to buy “american”. IF you were the leader of a country you’d want all the companies that belong in your country to be making the money. It results in job availbility and security for your population and keeps money flowing through the government and back in from consumers.
^^ +mad props, very well said
^^
Thats just the cole’s notes. I dont know if anyone’s noticing but it seems to me that the government is also inducing some heavy inflation. It starts with our minimum wage rising, the effect is also rise in prices as businesses adjust their prices and costs to deal with higher wages. Perfect example is Tim Hortons. Any one remember when large coffees could be had without that extra quarter? I’m still a young’un but i remember buying a large coffee for 1.28 and now i’m paying 1.49!
So does this mean that because were in a recession, prices are guna start dropping because nobody has/wants to spend money and stores/companies will be hurtn for business? Or am I just completly off base when it comes to economic mumbo jumbo?
straight foward answer is yes… any answer about an economic backlash at this point will just be an opinion or a speculation!!!
now this is “car chat” so if you dont want some whiplash in ur back that might make you startup a new thread like:
When do you think your concussion will end.
And if it does end, would you believe that there will some sort of economy car that will accompany it?
post topics like this in the members chat section lol…just playin bro
^^
I LOL’d pretty hard.
It’s still related to automotive.
And Cal, your right. Inflation is being pushed more and more.
I honestly wonder if the government is trying to run some reverse psycology on it’s citizens.
An increase in wages is always a good thing, but the negatives accompanying them are always over looked. …atleast by me:o