I was looking at '02+ Explorers/Mountaineers. They initially look decent, but as you go back in time they are all progressively being listed with more and more major problems. First the '02 Explorers were listed as having frequent failures of the 4wd system for various reasons, then the '03’s, then the Mountaineers.
Sure they seem to be getting better, but when it comes time to spend my own money on one of the biggest purchases of my life, I’m going to take the route of least risk. For now that’s still the Japanese manufacturers. There is a bit of extra risk now that my Nissan’s built in Tennessee and traditionally US manufacturing quality as been beneath the quality of Japanese manufacturing, but I’m hoping that when they opened plants in the US they brought their quality culture with them.
You can’t tell now how reliable a car is going to be in 5 years. What you CAN do is look at how reliable 5 year old cars are, and compare more recent trends. Hence the lag between an increase in design and manufacturing quality, and increase in reputation and sales. If GM and Ford continue this trend then my next vehicle may very well be domestic. Time will tell.