The Trump Presidency Discussion Thread (Non-Meme version)


#2241

Did you ever take a stats class? If a poll says 50.5-49.5%D, and it ends up 50.1-49.9%R, that’s not very far off, and well within the margin of error. A few tiny moves in the same direction is all it took to change the map like that thanks to the Electoral College. However, the Electoral College doesn’t elect the House, and the bigger your sample size, the less the chances of a systemic error affecting all of them. The popular vote came out exactly as expected, just a few fluctuations of 10-50000 in a few key states changed the results in the EC. Not saying it couldn’t happen tonight but it’s harder when you have 435 seats up. In the Senate, you have 10 seats that could break either way as they’re within the margin of error and based on historical results, it’s likely most of them move the same way.


#2242

@joe this article hits on some of my methodological concerns:


#2243

Oh I’m not voting for him, he’s just the type of candidate I would like to see win. I 100% agree with you on 3rd party votes. Molinaro had my vote, anything but King Andy.


#2244

Doesn’t look like I’ll be up very late watching results. CNN already saying the “big blue wave” didn’t happen. Fox already calling the house for the democrats based on exit polling and other data. And it’s only 9:40pm.

Democrats will take the house but not by the blue wave numbers they had hoped and Republicans will keep the senate and likely gain a seat or two. Just what I said this morning.

Basically just staying up to see what happens in FL right now. Not sure if the percentage out in Miami-Dade and Broward is going to be enough to make up the difference based on the margins on the reported votes so far. Bet there are recount challenges tomorrow.


#2245

i’ve always been told that these mid-terms always correct back the other way, is that true?


#2246

Dems get the house, Reps get the senate.


#2247

Traditionally yes, the party in power generally does poorly in the midterms.


#2248

Clinton lost 52 house seats in 1994 (outlier, record at the time)
Bush lost 36 house seats in 2006
Obama lost 63 house seats in 2010 (outlier, record at the time)
Trump will lose about 34 house seats, I think the count is at 26 now at the time of me writing this.

I’m not going spin this as a win for Trump, but I think he’ll be just under the historical average for seats lost in both house & senate.

Congrats to the Democrats :+1:


#2249

Relevant, but these are only first-terms:


#2250

russian collusion back as the number one story in 3…2…1…


#2251

Definitely not a win for Trump, but not the blue wave democrats were hoping for either.

I’m far more concerned with NY being fully in democrat control (senate, assembly, governor) than anything that happened nationally. The repubilcan control of the state senate for over a decade is the only thing that has protected the state from the lunacy of NYC.


#2252

What do you expect Cuomo and his new supporters (those elected) to do next?


#2253

“safe” act 2 must be on their list


#2254

In the short term nothing that bothers me. Legalized marijuana will come soon I bet.

Longer term? Much more “free” healthcare through increased Medicaid mandates, more money dumped into unions and even higher taxes to pay for it. The business climate will just keep getting worse because, “those rich businesses can pay for everything”.


#2255

Also still waiting to see the long term effects of “free college” (excelsior bill) in the next couple of years.


#2256

legalizing rec weed in NY would be awesome.


#2257

Democrats are an enigma. Remember when they went ape shit crazy over locker room talk? Somehow they don’t have a problem electing pedophiles and wife beaters. I would love to get inside their brains to see just how they process information.


#2258

They also elected someone who married their brother?!?!?


#2259

SAFE Act 2 is going to happen, I’m sure.

Cuomo wants to create a legacy of progressiveness.


#2260

And we elected Collins who is under indictment and almost certainly will end up in prison before his term is up. Sadly with the way our system is designed sometimes you plug you nose and vote for horseshit because keeping the seat for the party is more important than the specific person in it.